Blackjack – How To Read The 6 Deck/75% Dealt Chart Part4
June 14th, 2009
Moving on, we get to Win Rate %: This is the actual advantage over the house that you have with this betting spread. With S-l, your Win Rate is 0.16%, which means you're barely squeaking by. The highest Win Rate is from S-4, which is a whopping 1.74%. So, let's look at that betting strategy. The S-4 player is waiting for a full 1 % advantage over the house before he puts any money on the table. Should we all just use S-4, and wait until a 1% advantage occurs before we bet? Not necessarily. Look at the data in the next row:
Hourly Units: This data tells how many units we would expect to win per hour, based on 100 hands per hour, with each betting system. Why does S-4 slightly under-perform 5-2 and S-3, which have notably lower overall Win Rates'? The answer is found in the first row we looked at, Hands Bet/100. With S-4, we're only betting on 14 hands for every hundred hands seen. So we've got a big win rate on a very small amount of money. Also, this 5-4 betting strategy would be extremely impractical in a real-world casino. Back-counting 86% of the hands you see, before making a bet, is not easy to pull off. You'll look like a back counter and you may find your action unwanted when you do try to put a bet down. You'll be the classic pit buzzard.
Practically, it's far easier, and less obvious, to come off the top of the shoe with a 1-unit bet, and play through all those zero-count situations when the house has a small edge, but the flat-bet approach (5-7) is simply too weak. So, let's look at our results if we bet one unit off the top, but raise our bet when we get the advantage to our side.
5-5,5-6,5-7, and S-8 show our results assuming we spread to 2 units, 3 units, 4 units, and 8 units respectively. Using any one of these approaches, we again play 69 hands per hundred, but significantly raise both the win rate and hourly unit expectation over the 5-7 results. This is the power of betting more in proportion to your advantage.
Look closely at the Hourly Units data: Assuming a $100 betting unit, the 5-7 strategy would provide 0.11 units, or $11 per hour. The most we can expect with any of the flat bet approaches (5-2 and S-3) is 0.28 units, or $28 per hour. But using a spread to 2, 3, 4, or 8 units, our hourly expectation goes up to $39, $62, $86, and $162 respectively. So, although you can beat many shoe games with a flat bet, a small betting spread at higher counts has a lot of value.
The data in the chart above is all taken from a report I initially published in 1987 titled "Beat the 6-Deck Game." If you are a serious player, investing any substantial amount of money, I urge you to get the complete report, which is inexpensive. There are 44 full pages of charts, showing 6-deck results based on frequency distributions with varying levels of penetration, different strategies ranging from flat-bet table-hopping styles, to table-hopping with spreads up to 16 units, to playing through all hands of the shoe without table-hopping or back-counting.
These charts also display the unit win compared to standard deviation, showing various numbers of hands played, to give you a handle on what sort of fluctuation to expect at the tables. Finally, for those who are not scared of the math, and who want data not contained in any of the charts I provide, there is a more complete explanation of how you can use frequency distributions to perform your own analyses of any betting strategies you care to test. It's not really difficult if you've got a pocket calculator and you follow the instructions. There are also similar reports available for 1-deck, 2-deck, 4-deck and 8-deck games. You'll find information in the back section of this book on obtaining these reports.
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