In any case, our immediate interest here is in using a bigger advantage over the house to cut your fluctuations. Employing S-l, in the game described above, the counter using this strategy would win only 16 units for every 10,000 hands played, but one standard deviation on these hands would be about 110 units. That win rate of 0.11% is so small that even with 100,000 hands played, and an expectation of 156 units, the standard deviation, 348 units, is still more than twice the expectation.

With this small of an edge, whether or not you win or lose is a crapshoot, even over a period of years. One of the main goals of the pro player is to raise his expectation of winning so that it's higher than the standard deviation as soon as possible. If your expected unit win is still less than one standard deviation after 100,000 hands, you may have the edge on the house, but you're still just gambling.

If you use S-3, however, with a win rate of 1.26%, your unit expectation is 126 after 10,000 hands played, with a standard deviation of only 110 units. (Note: the standard deviation numbers are not in the chart above, which has been condensed from the charts in the 6-deck report.) So, with S-3, you're more likely to be in the black after 10,000 hands played than you would be after 100,000 hands played with the S-l betting strategy. That higher win rate really pays off if you're trying to get past those initial short-term losses.

But there are other problems with the S-3 betting strategy, some of which we've mentioned already. Since we're only playing 26 hands per 100 seen, it's going to take a hell of a lot longer to play 10,000 hands in real-world hours, with most of our time spent circling around the pit like a buzzard just watching for a decent betting opportunity. It's not a practical solo approach to beating the game.

So, let's look at S-8, playing the same number of hands per hour (69) as S-l, but spreading from 1 to 8 units as the count increases. Let's say that we spread from $25 to $200 in order to get this 1 to 8 spread. The average bet is 2.23 units, which—with a $25 unit—translates to $55.75. It's a significantly smaller average bet than the one used by the S-l player, who is flat betting $100, even though we are playing the same number of hands, and bet twice as much ($200) on the best situations.

So, playing S-8 our Hourly Unit expectation is 1.62, and with a $25 unit, this comes to $40.50, significantly higher than any of the flat-betting strategies, despite the smaller unit size and smaller average bet. Finally, even though using S-8 we play the same number of hands as the S-1 bettor, and are sometimes betting twice as much as the S-l bettor, after 10,000 hands the S-l bettor's standard deviation (with a $100 betting unit) is $11,000, while ours (with a $25-$200 betting spread) is only $8,950. So, S-8 outperforms S-l by winning almost 4 times as much per hour, with an average bet almost half the size of S-l, and has significantly reduced fluctuations.

Although casual players who have outside income can seriously consider playing with very small edges in order to obtain comps and other amenities, pros must always do whatever possible to get as big of an edge over the house as possible in order to cut the flux. Table-hopping to avoid betting when the house has any significant advantage is one way to do this. Let's look at some other methods:

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• Blackjack – How To Read The 6 Deck/75% Dealt Chart Part4 (0)
• Blackjack – How To Read The 6 Deck/75% Dealt Chart Part3 (0)
• Blackjack – How To Read The 6 Deck/75% Dealt Chart Part2 (0)

Moving on, we get to Win Rate %: This is the actual advantage over the house that you have with this betting spread. With S-l, your Win Rate is 0.16%, which means you're barely squeaking by. The highest Win Rate is from S-4, which is a whopping 1.74%. So, let's look at that betting strategy. The S-4 player is waiting for a full 1 % advantage over the house before he puts any money on the table. Should we all just use S-4, and wait until a 1% advantage occurs before we bet? Not necessarily. Look at the data in the next row:

Hourly Units: This data tells how many units we would expect to win per hour, based on 100 hands per hour, with each betting system. Why does S-4 slightly under-perform 5-2 and S-3, which have notably lower overall Win Rates'? The answer is found in the first row we looked at, Hands Bet/100. With S-4, we're only betting on 14 hands for every hundred hands seen. So we've got a big win rate on a very small amount of money. Also, this 5-4 betting strategy would be extremely impractical in a real-world casino. Back-counting 86% of the hands you see, before making a bet, is not easy to pull off. You'll look like a back counter and you may find your action unwanted when you do try to put a bet down. You'll be the classic pit buzzard.

Practically, it's far easier, and less obvious, to come off the top of the shoe with a 1-unit bet, and play through all those zero-count situations when the house has a small edge, but the flat-bet approach (5-7) is simply too weak. So, let's look at our results if we bet one unit off the top, but raise our bet when we get the advantage to our side.
5-5,5-6,5-7, and S-8 show our results assuming we spread to 2 units, 3 units, 4 units, and 8 units respectively. Using any one of these approaches, we again play 69 hands per hundred, but significantly raise both the win rate and hourly unit expectation over the 5-7 results. This is the power of betting more in proportion to your advantage.

Look closely at the Hourly Units data: Assuming a $100 betting unit, the 5-7 strategy would provide 0.11 units, or $11 per hour. The most we can expect with any of the flat bet approaches (5-2 and S-3) is 0.28 units, or $28 per hour. But using a spread to 2, 3, 4, or 8 units, our hourly expectation goes up to $39, $62, $86, and $162 respectively. So, although you can beat many shoe games with a flat bet, a small betting spread at higher counts has a lot of value.

The data in the chart above is all taken from a report I initially published in 1987 titled "Beat the 6-Deck Game." If you are a serious player, investing any substantial amount of money, I urge you to get the complete report, which is inexpensive. There are 44 full pages of charts, showing 6-deck results based on frequency distributions with varying levels of penetration, different strategies ranging from flat-bet table-hopping styles, to table-hopping with spreads up to 16 units, to playing through all hands of the shoe without table-hopping or back-counting.

These charts also display the unit win compared to standard deviation, showing various numbers of hands played, to give you a handle on what sort of fluctuation to expect at the tables. Finally, for those who are not scared of the math, and who want data not contained in any of the charts I provide, there is a more complete explanation of how you can use frequency distributions to perform your own analyses of any betting strategies you care to test. It's not really difficult if you've got a pocket calculator and you follow the instructions. There are also similar reports available for 1-deck, 2-deck, 4-deck and 8-deck games. You'll find information in the back section of this book on obtaining these reports.

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• Blackjack – How To Read The 6 Deck/75% Dealt Chart Part5 (0)
• Blackjack – How To Read The 6 Deck/75% Dealt Chart Part3 (0)
• Blackjack – How To Read The 6 Deck/75% Dealt Chart Part2 (0)